Topic | Corona pandemic model |
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The corona pandemic has Germany, Europe and the
world under control. Everyone wonders why
did this virus affect us? The layperson
cannot contribute much to the medical aspects, but a small mathematical
model of the corona pandemic can depict the real temporal pandemic
course in a model at any time - and thus make it possible to predict the
future. From today's perspective (mid-April 2020), this worked well. Let's see how the future looks like. The situation mid June has changed from strict lock down to some relaxations and the figures stabilize on a medium level - no further reduction. The November/ December 2020 data was terrible. The situation is out of control. Every calculation and forecast is like a looking at a magic glass sphere. |
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Presentation |
A 13-page
report with
information on the model structure and examples from various
countries (including Italy, Spain, Denmark) - a total of 456 kB
- sorry up to now only in German ! |
Data |
An Excel data sheet with various single sheets
for several countries of this corona-tormented world. (250
kB for 9 single sheets/ and calculation of different countries) And in addition an overview about the real data by WHO, ECDC and RKI |
Notes |
Important: this is a simulation based on the
real data of the Corona disease from the Robert Koch Institute for
Germany.
More details on
professional medical / epidemic models (such as the well-known SIR model
by W. O. Kermack and A. G. McKendrick (1927)) can be found in the
official literature. April 2020 |